As 2026 marks the beginning of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) amid rising global volatility and fragmentation, CGTN published an analysis exploring how China will sustain steady economic growth, and what drives the resilience of the world’s second-largest economy.
Despite mounting external headwinds, China’s economy has demonstrated “remarkable resilience,” Marshall Mills, IMF’s senior resident representative to China, said late 2025. Noting that China contributes around 30 percent to global growth, he said the country’s steady outlook provides significant support to the world economy at a time of heightened uncertainty.
As 2026 opens the first year of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), policymakers have laid out a clear roadmap. At the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2025, Chinese President Xi Jinping set the overall tone for this year’s economic policy as “pursuing progress while maintaining stability, and improving quality and efficiency.”
“There are many tasks on the economic agenda for 2026. We must grasp the key points and ensure coordinated progress,” Xi said.
In a world marked by volatility and fragmentation, China’s strategy centers on deepening structural reform, strengthening the business environment and accelerating technological innovation.
Stable policies underpin economic growth
China’s top-level policy framework provides a strong institutional foundation for innovation-driven development. This stability and predictability not only supports domestic growth but also reduces uncertainty for businesses and strengthens market confidence.
Over the years, China has elevated scientific and technological self-reliance to a strategic priority and set the goal of building a global science and technology powerhouse by 2035.
This vision has been backed by concrete policy measures. Authorities have advanced major national science projects and laboratories, positioned enterprises as the primary drivers of innovation, strengthened collaboration among industry, universities and research institutes, and improved support mechanisms through tax incentives, R&D subsidies, talent programs and science-and-technology finance initiatives.
At the same time, efforts to improve the business environment and invigorate the private sector have continued. Measures include expanded financing channels, tax and fee cuts, relaxed market access and stronger legal protection.
In January last year, the country’s top economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), released guidelines for building a unified national market to reduce transaction costs and improve factor mobility nationwide.
Meanwhile, China’s national lawmakers last April passed the country’s first fundamental law dedicated to promoting the private sector, seeking to ensure fair competition, improve financing access and strengthen legal protections for private enterprises. China has also fully removed foreign investment access restrictions in the manufacturing sector and further shortened its negative list for foreign investment.
For the 15th Five-Year Plan period, building a modern industrial system, fostering new quality productive forces, expanding domestic demand and advancing higher-level opening-up have been placed at the forefront.
Strong foundations, vast potential
Recent data underscores the effectiveness of this policy framework. In 2025, China’s GDP reached 140.19 trillion yuan (about $20.13 trillion), up 5 percent year on year, while foreign trade totaled 45.47 trillion yuan, marking nine consecutive years of growth.
Liu Shangxi, vice chairman of the China Macroeconomics Society, said the performance reflects Chinese economy’s internal resilience despite external disruptions.
Beyond headline figures, structural upgrading has accelerated. Traditional industries have stepped up digital and green transformation, while strategic emerging sectors – including next-generation information technology, high-end equipment manufacturing and new energy vehicles – have expanded rapidly.
Green transition has become a defining feature of this shift. In 2025, China’s new energy vehicle output exceeded 16 million units, maintaining its global lead for the 11th consecutive year. The country has also built the world’s largest and most comprehensive renewable energy industrial chain. Energy consumption per unit of GDP has fallen 11.6 percent compared with 2020, equivalent to cutting roughly 1.1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions.
Meanwhile, technological innovation is increasingly embedded across industrial chains. Taking AI as an example, official data shows that by early 2026, China had more than 6,000 artificial intelligence companies, with the core AI industry surpassing 1.2 trillion yuan in scale – up nearly 30 percent year on year. Domestic open-source large models have recorded over 10 billion cumulative global downloads, signaling widespread industrial integration.
With its vast domestic market, complete industrial system, deep talent pool and strengths in digital and green sectors, China has built a comprehensive competitive edge, Liu noted. These fundamentals, he said, will not only sustain the world’s second-largest economy, but also inject greater predictability and stability into an increasingly uncertain global landscape.
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